{"id":25208,"date":"2020-05-27T06:52:17","date_gmt":"2020-05-27T04:52:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dorogimedence.hu\/?p=25208"},"modified":"2020-05-27T06:53:09","modified_gmt":"2020-05-27T04:53:09","slug":"a-koronavirus-jarvany-okozta-gazdasagi-karok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dorogimedence.hu\/index.php\/2020\/05\/27\/a-koronavirus-jarvany-okozta-gazdasagi-karok\/","title":{"rendered":"A koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny okozta gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rok"},"content":{"rendered":"

K\u00f6z\u00e9p- \u00e9s Nyugat-Dun\u00e1nt\u00falon, valamint K\u00f6z\u00e9p-Magyarorsz\u00e1gon okozta a legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rokat a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Elt\u00e9r\u0151 m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben \u00e9rintik a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny okozta gazdas\u00e1gi neh\u00e9zs\u00e9gek Magyarorsz\u00e1g k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 r\u00e9gi\u00f3it az Intrum \u00faj, region\u00e1lis fizet\u00e9si indexe alapj\u00e1n (IRFI). A gazdas\u00e1gilag fejlettebb r\u00e9gi\u00f3kban k\u00e9tszer akkora volt a visszaes\u00e9s, mint a kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 fejlett \u00e9szaki \u00e9s keleti t\u00e9rs\u00e9gekben, de a lakoss\u00e1gnak m\u00e9gis itt f\u00e1jhat jobban a v\u00e1ls\u00e1g.<\/p>\n

Ahogy az Intrum \u00e9s a GKI nemr\u00e9g elv\u00e9gzett fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi kutat\u00e1saib\u00f3l kider\u00fclt, az elm\u00falt id\u0151szakban Magyarorsz\u00e1g mindegyik nagy r\u00e9gi\u00f3j\u00e1ban jelent\u0151sen javult a lakoss\u00e1g p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi helyzete. A negyed\u00e9vente elk\u00e9sz\u00edtett lakoss\u00e1gi fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi index (IFI) a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi helyzet\u00e9t, anyagi biztons\u00e1g\u00e1t mutatja meg, olyan mutat\u00f3k alapj\u00e1n, mint a j\u00f6vedelmek szintje vagy a meg\u00e9lhet\u00e9si k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek. Az Index 4-5 \u00e9ves emelked\u00e9s ut\u00e1n tavaly tet\u0151z\u00f6tt, \u00e9s b\u00e1r az \u00e9v m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9ben enyh\u00e9n cs\u00f6kkent a roml\u00f3 vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gi konjunkt\u00fara miatt, a foglalkoztat\u00e1s b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9nek, a b\u00e9rek emelked\u00e9s\u00e9nek \u00e9s az alacsony ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g\u00e1llom\u00e1nynak k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151en viszonylag magas szinten maradt.<\/p>\n

Az idei els\u0151 negyed\u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9n az orsz\u00e1gos lakoss\u00e1gi fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi index (IFI) m\u00e9g mindig igen magasan \u00e1llt (41,6), ekkor m\u00e9g kev\u00e9ss\u00e9 \u00e9rz\u0151d\u00f6tt a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny miatti korl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok negat\u00edv gazdas\u00e1gi hat\u00e1sa. Az Intrum \u00e9s a GKI szak\u00e9rt\u0151i \u00e1prilis m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9ben megism\u00e9telt\u00e9k a kutat\u00e1st, \u00e9s az \u00faj adatok m\u00e1r j\u00f3l mutatt\u00e1k a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny okozta k\u00e1rokat. Orsz\u00e1gos szinten a lakoss\u00e1g fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9ge t\u00f6bb mint 22 ponttal romlott (18,9): egy \u00e9v alatt eddig ilyen szint\u0171 visszaes\u00e9s p\u00e9ld\u00e1tlan, utolj\u00e1ra 2014-ben \u00e1llt ilyen alacsonyan a fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi index.<\/p>\n

Az Intrum \u00e9s a GKI \u00faj, f\u00e9l\u00e9vente friss\u00fcl\u0151 region\u00e1lis fizet\u00e9si jelent\u00e9s\u00e9b\u0151l pedig r\u00e9gi\u00f3s szinten lehet adatokat kinyerni a v\u00e1ls\u00e1g okozta sokkr\u00f3l. Az indexb\u0151l kider\u00fclt, hogy egyes r\u00e9gi\u00f3kat a v\u00e1ls\u00e1g az \u00e1tlagn\u00e1l s\u00falyosabban \u00e9rintett. A legnagyobb m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171en a Nyugat-Dun\u00e1nt\u00falon \u00e9l\u0151k p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi helyzete romlott, a r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban a region\u00e1lis fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi index \u00e9rt\u00e9ke 2020 \u00e1prilis\u00e1ban 46 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal cs\u00f6kkent az els\u0151 negyed\u00e9vhez k\u00e9pest. Hasonl\u00f3 a helyzet K\u00f6z\u00e9p-Magyarorsz\u00e1gon \u00e9s K\u00f6z\u00e9p-Dun\u00e1nt\u00falon is. A k\u00f6zponti r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban 40, nyugatabbra 41 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal esett vissza a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9ge.<\/p>\n

\u201eA h\u00e1rom r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban \u00e9l\u0151k s\u00falyos \u00e9rintetts\u00e9ge a r\u00e9gi\u00f3s gazdas\u00e1g \u00e9s foglalkoztat\u00e1s szerkezet\u00e9vel magyar\u00e1zhat\u00f3\u201d \u2013 mondta Deszpot K\u00e1roly, az Intrum hazai \u00e9rt\u00e9kes\u00edt\u00e9si \u00e9s \u00fczletfejleszt\u00e9si igazgat\u00f3ja. \u201eK\u00f6z\u00e9p- \u00e9s Nyugat-Dun\u00e1nt\u00fal gazdas\u00e1g\u00e1ban hatalmas az aut\u00f3ipar s\u00falya, azonban a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny nyom\u00e1n \u00f6sszeoml\u00f3 glob\u00e1lis ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1ncok sok helyen a termel\u00e9s le\u00e1ll\u00e1s\u00e1hoz, elbocs\u00e1t\u00e1sokhoz vagy a b\u00e9rek cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s\u00e9hez vezettek. Az osztr\u00e1k hat\u00e1r ment\u00e9n \u00e9l\u0151 ing\u00e1z\u00f3k \u00e9s szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1st k\u00edn\u00e1l\u00f3k j\u00f6vedelme szint\u00e9n drasztikusan cs\u00f6kkent a hat\u00e1r lez\u00e1r\u00e1sa miatt, csak\u00fagy, mint a Balaton k\u00f6rny\u00e9ki turizmusb\u00f3l \u00e9l\u0151 emberek\u00e9. Budapesten \u00e9s k\u00f6rny\u00e9k\u00e9n a munkahelyek nagy t\u00f6bbs\u00e9ge a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3 szektorb\u00f3l ker\u00fcl ki, ez\u00e9rt az \u00fczletek bez\u00e1r\u00e1sa \u00e9s a kereslet visszaes\u00e9se \u0151ket is \u00e9rz\u00e9kenyen \u00e9rintette\u201d \u2013 mondta.<\/p>\n

Deszpot K\u00e1roly szerint, Budapesten a szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3 szektor a magas bels\u0151 kereslet miatt viszonylag gyorsan megindulhat, de a teljes talpra\u00e1ll\u00e1shoz a k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi turist\u00e1k megjelen\u00e9s\u00e9re is sz\u00fcks\u00e9g lesz \u00e9pp\u00fagy, mint a Balatonon, vagy a nyugati orsz\u00e1gr\u00e9szben. A Dun\u00e1nt\u00falon pedig a turist\u00e1k mellett az aut\u00f3ipar \u00fajraindul\u00e1sa jelentheti a kulcs t\u00e9nyez\u0151t, ami egyel\u0151re v\u00e1rat mag\u00e1ra. Emiatt e r\u00e9gi\u00f3kban a v\u00e1ls\u00e1g tart\u00f3sabb lehet, mint m\u00e1shol, k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen, ha az \u00e9rintett \u00e1gazatokban tart\u00f3s le\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9sek j\u00f6nnek.<\/p>\n

\"\"A fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi index v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sai 10 \u00e9v alatt (orsz\u00e1gos adatok)<\/em><\/p>\n

Az orsz\u00e1g m\u00e1s r\u00e9gi\u00f3iban szint\u00e9n jelent\u0151s volt a visszaes\u00e9s, de kor\u00e1ntsem annyira, mint a h\u00e1rom legfejlettebb r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban. A D\u00e9l-Alf\u00f6ld\u00f6n 25, \u00c9szak-Magyarorsz\u00e1gon \u00e9s az \u00c9szak-Alf\u00f6ld\u00f6n mintegy 21 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal romlott a lakoss\u00e1g p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi helyzete \u00e1prilisban. Ezekben a r\u00e9gi\u00f3kban az orsz\u00e1gos \u00e1tlagn\u00e1l kor\u00e1bban is alacsonyabb volt a lakoss\u00e1g fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi szintje, de a t\u00e9rs\u00e9gekben kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 jelent\u0151s a turizmus \u00e9s m\u00e1s szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok, m\u00edg sokan dolgoznak olyan \u00e1gazatokban, mint a mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1g \u00e9s az \u00e9lelmiszeripar, amelyekben kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 esett vissza a termel\u00e9s \u00e9s a foglalkoztat\u00e1s az elm\u00falt b\u0151 egy h\u00f3napban. Aggodalomra ad okot azonban, hogy ezekben a r\u00e9gi\u00f3kban is jelent\u0151s p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a j\u00e1rm\u0171ipar s\u00falya, amely m\u00e1s t\u00e9rs\u00e9gekben is s\u00falyos vesztes\u00e9geket szenvedett el.<\/p>\n

\u201eB\u00e1r a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny gazdas\u00e1gi hat\u00e1sai egyel\u0151re a fejlettebb r\u00e9gi\u00f3kban er\u0151sebbek, m\u00e9gis a szeg\u00e9nyebb t\u00e9rs\u00e9gekre fontosabb figyelni\u201d \u2013 mondta Deszpot K\u00e1roly. \u201eAz itt \u00e9l\u0151 emberek jobban ki vannak t\u00e9ve a gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1roknak, kisebb megtakar\u00edt\u00e1saik miatt nehezebben v\u00e9szelnek \u00e1t munka n\u00e9lk\u00fcl elt\u00f6lt\u00f6tt h\u00f3napokat, \u00e9s az itteni v\u00e1llalatok az alacsonyabb bels\u0151 kereslet miatt nehezebben \u00e1llnak talpra. B\u00e1r az indexb\u0151l az l\u00e1tszik, hogy az \u00e9szak-magyarorsz\u00e1gi, tisz\u00e1nt\u00fali \u00e9s d\u00e9l-alf\u00f6ldi lakoss\u00e1g egyel\u0151re fizet\u0151k\u00e9pes, a r\u00e9gi\u00f3k gazdas\u00e1gi struktur\u00e1lis fejletlens\u00e9ge miatt ez megv\u00e1ltozhat. Ennek elker\u00fcl\u00e9se \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben kulcsfontoss\u00e1g\u00fa, hogy sikeresek legyenek a munkahelyek megment\u00e9s\u00e9t \u00e9s a munka n\u00e9lk\u00fcl maradt emberek ell\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1t szolg\u00e1l\u00f3 l\u00e9p\u00e9sek.\u201d<\/p>\n

Az Intrum fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi indexr\u0151l<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Az Intrum, Eur\u00f3pa vezet\u0151 k\u00f6vetel\u00e9skezel\u0151 v\u00e1llalatcsoportja a GKI Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 Zrt.-vel k\u00f6z\u00f6sen k\u00e9sz\u00edtette el az Intrum fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi indexet, mely a magyar h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9g\u00e9t mutatja meg. Az index elk\u00e9sz\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9hez f\u0151komponens-anal\u00edzis m\u00f3dszertan\u00e1t haszn\u00e1ltuk fel, melyet az \u00fagynevezett PCA adatredukci\u00f3s m\u00f3dszertannal v\u00e9gezt\u00fcnk. Az indexet n\u00e9gy kiemelt v\u00e1ltoz\u00f3 alkotja: az Intrum adatb\u00e1zis\u00e1b\u00f3l kinyert ar\u00e1nysz\u00e1m, a GKI Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 Zrt. felm\u00e9r\u00e9se a lakoss\u00e1g helyzet\u00e9r\u0151l, a GKI Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 Zrt. felm\u00e9r\u00e9se a magyar lakoss\u00e1g p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1s\u00e1nak el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9r\u0151l, valamint az MNB kamatokra vonatkoz\u00f3 adatai.<\/p>\n

A GKI Gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 Zrt. 2004 \u00f3ta ISO min\u0151s\u00e9gbiztos\u00edt\u00e1si rendszert m\u0171k\u00f6dtet. A min\u0151s\u00e9gbiztos\u00edt\u00e1si rendszer elemek\u00e9nt folyamatosan fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1ljuk \u00e9s audit\u00e1ljuk a k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 projektjeinket.<\/p>\n

Min\u00e9l magasabb az Intrum fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi index \u00e9rt\u00e9ke, ann\u00e1l jobban k\u00e9pes a lakoss\u00e1g fizet\u00e9si k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9geit teljes\u00edteni. Az Intrum fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi index szoros korrel\u00e1ci\u00f3t mutat a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9ssel, a fogyaszt\u00e1ssal \u00e9s a bankrendszerben l\u00e9v\u0151 hitel-nagys\u00e1gokkal. Tov\u00e1bb\u00e1 olyan v\u00e1ltoz\u00f3kkal is egy\u00fctt mozog, mint a nett\u00f3 \u00e1tlagkereset, a foglalkoztatottak sz\u00e1ma, a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9gi r\u00e1ta \u00e9s a brutt\u00f3 hitel\u00e1llom\u00e1ny nagys\u00e1ga \u2013 ut\u00f3bbi kett\u0151vel ellent\u00e9tes ir\u00e1nyban. Ebb\u0151l ad\u00f3d\u00f3an az index k\u00e9pes megragadni a gazdas\u00e1gi konjunkt\u00far\u00e1t, valamint a hitelvolumeneken kereszt\u00fcl a lakoss\u00e1g fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9g\u00e9nek javul\u00e1s\u00e1t vagy roml\u00e1s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Az Intrum-r\u00f3l<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Az Intrum az ipar\u00e1g vezet\u0151 k\u00f6vetel\u00e9skezel\u00e9si szolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sokat ny\u00fajt\u00f3 v\u00e1llalata, mely Eur\u00f3pa 24 orsz\u00e1g\u00e1ban van jelen. Az Intrum v\u00e1llalatok fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t seg\u00edti azzal, hogy t\u00e1mogatja \u00fcgyfeleit, \u00e9s olyan megold\u00e1sokat k\u00edn\u00e1l, amelyek ig\u00e9nybev\u00e9tel\u00e9vel m\u00e9rhet\u0151en javul \u00fcgyfeleinek cash-flow-ja \u00e9s hossz\u00fa t\u00e1v\u00fa j\u00f6vedelmez\u0151s\u00e9ge. A t\u00e1rsas\u00e1g k\u00fcldet\u00e9s\u00e9nek fontos r\u00e9sze annak biztos\u00edt\u00e1sa, hogy az egy\u00e9nek \u00e9s a v\u00e1llalatok megkapj\u00e1k az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gmentess\u00e9ghez sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges t\u00e1mogat\u00e1st. Az Intrum t\u00f6bb mint 9000 elk\u00f6telezett \u00e9s empatikus szakembert foglalkoztat, akik Eur\u00f3pa-szerte mintegy 80 000 c\u00e9get szolg\u00e1lnak ki. A v\u00e1llalat proforma \u00e1rbev\u00e9tele 2018-ban el\u00e9rte a 13,4 milli\u00e1rd sv\u00e9d koron\u00e1t. Az Intrum k\u00f6zpontja Stockholmban, Sv\u00e9dorsz\u00e1gban tal\u00e1lhat\u00f3, \u00e9s az Intrum r\u00e9szv\u00e9nyeit a Nasdaq Stockholm t\u0151zsd\u00e9n jegyzik. Tov\u00e1bb inform\u00e1ci\u00f3k\u00e9rt l\u00e1togasson el a www.intrum.com<\/a> weboldalra.<\/p>\n

Bor\u00edt\u00f3k\u00e9p: a fizet\u0151k\u00e9pess\u00e9gi index cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se r\u00e9gi\u00f3nk\u00e9nt, 2020. \u00e1prilis\u00e1ban<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u00f6z\u00e9p- \u00e9s Nyugat-Dun\u00e1nt\u00falon, valamint K\u00f6z\u00e9p-Magyarorsz\u00e1gon okozta a legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rokat a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny. Elt\u00e9r\u0151 m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben \u00e9rintik a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny okozta gazdas\u00e1gi neh\u00e9zs\u00e9gek Magyarorsz\u00e1g k\u00fcl\u00f6nb\u00f6z\u0151 r\u00e9gi\u00f3it az Intrum \u00faj, region\u00e1lis fizet\u00e9si indexe alapj\u00e1n (IRFI). A gazdas\u00e1gilag fejlettebb r\u00e9gi\u00f3kban k\u00e9tszer akkora volt a visszaes\u00e9s, mint a kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 fejlett \u00e9szaki \u00e9s keleti t\u00e9rs\u00e9gekben, de a lakoss\u00e1gnak m\u00e9gis itt f\u00e1jhat jobban<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25210,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[4738],"class_list":{"0":"post-25208","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-hirek","8":"tag-koronavirus"},"yoast_head":"\nA koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny okozta gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rok<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dorogimedence.hu\/index.php\/2020\/05\/27\/a-koronavirus-jarvany-okozta-gazdasagi-karok\/\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny okozta gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rok\" class=\"yoast-seo-meta-tag\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"K\u00f6z\u00e9p- \u00e9s Nyugat-Dun\u00e1nt\u00falon, valamint K\u00f6z\u00e9p-Magyarorsz\u00e1gon okozta a legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rokat a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny. 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